During a fight, I selected one of my guys and pointed at a raider, here is what it said:
Shot by Dweeb: 4%
Range/skill 14%
Range/equipment 90%
Darkness 60%
Cover 57%
Rock debris stops 32%
Rock debris stops 16%
How do you get to a hitting chance of 4% with this basic values?
Quote from: Dr. Z on January 29, 2014, 05:05:49 AM
During a fight, I selected one of my guys and pointed at a raider, here is what it said:
Shot by Dweeb: 4%
Range/skill 14%
Range/equipment 90%
Darkness 60%
Cover 57%
Rock debris stops 32%
Rock debris stops 16%
How do you get to a hitting chance of 4% with this basic values?
14% x 90% x 60% x 57% = 4(.3092)%
(4.3092% is rounded down to 4% for display purposes.)
Remember that 14% means 0.14. The rest is just simple multiplication.
The "cover" value indicates your hit chance through cover, ignoring all other factors. Rock debris provide two chances to miss, at 32% and 16%. The chance to hit is thus (1-0.32) x (1-0.16) = 57(.12)%, which is already calculated and displayed as 57%.
Edit: Basically, to make sense of the calculation:
Your colonist has a 14% chance to hit the raider at the distance between the two.
Hit chance = 14%
Assuming he's 'good enough' to hit, there's only a 90% chance that he will hit due to the range penalties on his equipment.
14% x 90% = 12.6%
(Note: 0.14 x 0.9 = 0.126)
Even if passes this test, darkness makes him miss 40% of the time, so he would only have a 60% chance to hit after that.
12.6% x 60% = 7.56%
Finally, assuming he makes it it this far, he still has only a 57% chance of hitting the raider instead of the rock cover.
7.56% x 57% = 4.3092% ≈ 4%
Does this make sense now?
Ok thank you, I just calculated the average, which was about 40-50%, but if you multiply it, it makes sense :)