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[Preliminary Analysis of the Effect of Item Health on Price]

Preliminary Analysis of the Effect of Item Health on Price
By Andrew Whitaker
Abstract: In Rimworld, the effect of item health on the price when buying from or selling to traders has remained unclear. Analysis of the code has revealed an intended behavior, but confirmation of this behavior was not found. As such, using data collected from the community, an analysis was performed to determine the effect of item health on its market price.
Methodology: Data was gathered from the community and generated by normal play. All data was collected in the sheet here and was compiled into a pivot table. Each category was then divided by the price of an equivalent full-health good to obtain a percent. All percents were averaged and arranged in a table for analysis.
Data: As above, found here.
Results: As expected, there is a significant correlation between item health and price. However, the expected result of two distinct linear relationships (one for 0-30%, and one from 31-99%) was not found. When the data was broken into two sets (0-30% and 31-100%) both a linear and exponential trend line were attempted. In addition, the same two were performed for the entire data set. r^2 values are as follows:

Data Range	Linear r^2	Exponential r^2
0-30%	0.525	0.488
31-100%	0.156	0.53
0-100%	0.199	0.792

This shows the surprising results that the best fit model for the current data is an exponential model, of the form P_A= P_B 0.0044 e^{6.285 H}, where P_A is the new, adjusted price,  P_B is the item's base (full-health) price, and H is the health in decimal form.

Conclusions:
The data appears to suggest that the above model is the best fit for the current data. However, it is worth noting that this model loses usefulness between 80% and 100%, as the model suggests higher than base price in that range. Furthermore, there is still a high degree of data spread; the addition of more data is likely to result in more accurate, better models. Further research is advised, though the current model may suffice for a temporary, working equation.

Notes:
Note that the data are dynamic; the adding of further data points will change the analysis on the spreadsheet. This is intended, as the project is still ongoing.
Also note that, for those wishing to review the data themselves, it is located at the above link, in the "Item Health Analysis" spreadsheet. The graphs are located in rows 200 through 260, Columns A-N.
Peer review is welcome, as are alternate models which may fit the data better; the community has helped me get this far, so anyone who sees an error or a place for improvement is welcome.
Finally, a huge thank you to all who have contributed data; right now we have about 1 400 data points, which is remarkable for people helping out in their free time. This couldn't have happened without you.
Further refinements are forthcoming; as more data is acquired, current analyses will be refined, and new ones performed.

Assuming you have a decent construction guy, build furniture and sell it.  Bulk and exotics will buy it.  I make a lot of cloth furniture in the early and mid games.  You don't need a production table for it, and your construction guy skills up.

Really; I've heard this before, but seem unable to do it myself; the myriad of beds, chairs, and tables I'd made (trying to get high-quality ones to place) were none accepted by the tribal or outlander bulk or exotic merchants who visited my colony in that time. Is it only space traders who buy furniture? Only certain types of furniture? Are you using any mods, or is this in a vanilla-only game?

I hope you forgive my barrage of questions; you've done something I would very much like to do, so any guidance you can offer will be greatly appreciated.

I second this; if nothing else, perhaps a collapsed table of data summary?

A level 20 artist should have a 1.2% chance of crafting a legendary sculpture. Capacities don't weigh into that at all; they affect the crafting speed but not the quality of the result.

Ah, quite; thank you for the correction! I had misinterpreted the source.

With the figures you presented, the OP could easily have just been unlucky. This is further supported by Ninosegers; thank you both! I think you two helped answer this question more thoroughly than I ever could've.

The wiki claims that quality is determined when a product is finished, so the savescumming you reported is likely to have produced a legendary sculpture by now.¹ So, assuming you just haven't been unlucky, there are two more things I can think to check.

The obvious one is, if you are using mods, I'd look for ones which modify qualities or crafting processes. If you find out which mod it is, I'd be grateful to hear it.   I imagine others would, too.

I'm going to assume that you're using vanilla only, or none of your mods modify quality or crafting. The last thing I can think of to check, then, is the state of your crafters. Are they in pain? Are they missing any limbs or do they have old wounds? I ask because anything that adversely affects consciousness or manipulation seems to also adversely affect colonist work.² As such, if your colonists are miserable or wounded, one would expect them to be operating at a lower skill level, if I've read that source right.

If none of this seems to be the root of your problem, then it sounds like a legitimate bug; it may be worth posting a report in the bug forum with a copy of your save so the devs can figure out what's going wrong.

¹: Assuming a godlike, perfectly healthy sculptor and, say, 1 savescumed sculpture produced per minute, the odds of us getting a legendary item by now varies according to the exact figures. Assuming a 1% legendary chance, 60 attempts has a 54.7% chance (0.99^60) of not yielding a legendary artifact. For a 4% chance, that goes down to 0.96^60=8% chance. So in the edge case, it's entirely possible that you've just been unlucky. However, that likelihood drops off quickly as the chances of a legendary sculpture rise above 1%.
²: https://ludeon.com/forums/index.php?topic=14500.0

I would assume it's still possible, if unlikely. Note that, according to the wiki, even a godlike (level 20) craftsperson has only a 1-4% chance of making a legendary item.

From my own personal experience in vanilla Rimworld, I have not yet made a legendary item, though I have seen them in-game for sale from traders. If you use mods, it is possible something is broken, though based on the low legendary chance anyway, I'm more inclined to think it's just bad luck.

*hugs mumble!* I think we may fundamentally disagree on this particular point, (re: whether Rimworld is an adequate forum for dealing with such subjects) but that's okay! Truth be told, I'm actually pretty stoked that we can talk it over, and maintain our own viewpoints without diminishing the others'. It's almost like we're treating each other with mutual respect or something.

Thank you for your kind words. *hugs!* You're a good guy your own self, and I'm happy I've gotten to talk with you on this great forum. I look forward to many such conversations to come. And it's really, really good to know that the internet has people like you on it; I can't tell you how refreshing it is to see vulnerability met with compassion. Of course, from what you said about harsh criticisms and being called a retard, I'm sure you know. <.< The internet can be a rough place, but it seems to me that this forum is a kind little corner of it. You, sir, are awesome, and I'm grateful for your presence here. ^ ^

Mumble, I think I can see where you're coming from. It sounds like you're making the argument, not without merit, that art (including video games) is only as poignant as the subjects it tackles. This is true. And it's also a completely valid stance to take.

Where we disagree, I feel, is whether a game, for which my goal when playing is levity and not intense reflection, is the place to put those ideas which, due to the discomfort they bring, also bring the possibility of growth. It sounds like you believe Rimworld should push players in such a way, in the hopes of a more rewarding payoff. That's totally valid. I disagree; that too, is valid I think, for the same reasons: we're both intelligent, thoughtful humans who just disagree on something simple and small. So I'd like to take the opportunity to thank you for being very civil and for sharing your thoughts with the rest of us.

I will take a moment to note something, however:

I've had suicidal thoughts myself in the past, and the main idea to prevent me was thinking of others who cared, or even my purpose...and we all have a purpose, even if we don't realize it yet

This is your experience. I'm very happy that it has been your experience. For me, I had no such resolution. I have no such hope. Though I'm receiving treatment, there is still a very real chance that my depression will end up killing me. So it has been my whole life, and so I have reason to believe it will continue to be. Mind you, if I do go, it won't have been a video game that did it. But I suppose my belief is that, if there are a small but significant number of people like me out there, then it may be worth omitting such sensitive topics as rape and suicide for the sake of preventing the suffering of others; as O Negative put, the third option is, as you put it, making such things "non existant." (Or, more accurately, "Not simulated." Just because the game doesn't simulate colonist poops doesn't mean we assume they don't poop. Though now that I think about it... Huh. I'll have to consider the question of pawn feces.)

The above is, I'd like to stress again, merely an opinion. It is not fact. If you disagree, then your opinion is just as valid as mine. Point of fact, there's a play called "The Pillowman" by Martin McDonagh, which deals with a question similar to this one: How responsible can an artist be held for people's reaction to their work? It's one of those questions there may not even be an answer to. The question, however, still may be worth asking.

If Tynan puts suicide in the game, I'll keep playing. It's not what I would do, personally, but that doesn't make it wrong. I suppose the point of my post earlier, and of here, was to be sure that if it is included, that it is considered carefully first. That one might stop and think, "Is this worth it?" and only after concluding, "Yes, art transcends risk" proceed. I may be alone in thinking this, but for something like this I care more about the process by which a decision is reached than by the decision itself.

You, Mumble, have done an excellent job of considering. You've presented well thought-out points and beliefs, all of which I find poignant and sympathetic; I can see and understand why you believe what you believe, and like you a little more for it, too. Your points are all good, and are all in keeping with the belief (unless I've misread) of "Art, games included, should promote growth, and through it, beauty."

I'm also going to admit that, at the moment, I'm being inconsistent; I love hard moments and situations and the like in RPGs. I feel a thrill whenever I encounter something ambiguous, which makes me stop and stare at the screen for a full five to fifteen minutes, deciding which dialogue option to pick, which is right. For me, however, I feel that a strategy game is a poor platform to give such topics the context and justice they are due.

I feel that it would be difficult to find a revelation in a mood debuff from a bereaved colonist, or an epiphany in a colony's tantrum spiral. I feel it is much easier, both for a player and a designer, to make opportunities for such growth through a more character-driven medium, one in which the actors involved are complex, have thoughts beyond the immediate, and process deeply as individuals, rather than the fairly mechanical and cookie-cutter logic of pawns.


Tl;dr:
These are just my feelings; if you disagree, that's TOTALLY fine. In summation, these are my points:
1) Things like suicide and rape are heavy subjects which can elicit strong emotional responses. (On this, I believe, we agree.)
2) I do not believe all art has to tackle all issues. As such, I do not see a need for Rimworld to include suicide. (Note that this also means I see no need for Rimworld to exclude suicide, as well. If it's in, it's in.) I feel we may not have the exact same stance on this issue.
3) I feel that a strategy game is a poor platform to tackle difficult subjects like rape and suicide with the gravity they are owed, and that other genres, like RPGs or interactive novellas are much better suited for the task. (I'm not sure whether you would agree with me on this or not; I'd be interested to hear your take and reasoning on this.)
4) I do not view this issue as a major sticking point; the inclusion or exclusion of difficult subjects will not significantly impact my gaming or purchasing habits of Rimworld. I also view polite disagreement as an entirely acceptable outcome, as many of my points are on very soft subjects, in which there may not exist a right answer.
5) Thank you so much for being willing to talk about this, Mumble; I very much appreciate your thought out points, analogies, and your sensitive handling of the matter. On the internet, it's always easy to dismiss someone as being overly sensitive, or to take a hostile or defensive tone, and from seeing you in various threads, it seems that you're one of the many Good people who is civil, polite, kind and thoughtful. I very much appreciate this; it's folks like you, O Negative, and Mike Lemmer, who discuss difficult subjects so well, that make the internet worthwhile. Thank you.

Going to add my two cents here; as someone who's dealt with chronic depression, I can confirm that sometimes suicide in media triggers my own suicidal thoughts. Personally, I don't think a colonist suicide in Rimworld would be trigger to me, but for others who haven't cultivated the detachment to their pawns, or whose brain simply works differently, that may not be the case.

Power to ya, Mike, for realizing that before I did. *hugs!* You, sir, are a boss. *salutes*

They aren't. The Assault Rifle is based off the M16, which is 5.66 x 45mm. The Survival Rifle is based off a Short Magazine Lee Enfield, which is .303 British. 5.66mm is .223 in diameter.

The survival rifle should be far more lethal than the assault rifle, it fires a larger + heavier bullet at roughly the same velocity, and impacts with over 1000 more Joules of force.

This is a good point. However, the question remains of how much of that energy is transferred to the target, and how much is wasted by being left over after the round punches through. The 5.66 x 45 mm tumbles a bit, yeah? That'd transfer more energy to the target, in a similar fashion to hollow points. However, that's purely academic, because, as you pointed out, they AREN'T the same caliber, so regardless of tumbling or energy transfer, the difference in damage remains justified based on the different bullet characteristics in the first place. So, thank you for pointing out my flawed assumption! Assuming they're of similar calibers doesn't seem to be a good assumption at all. :p 

But yeah, as iceteazz says, some more balancing would be handy.

There must be a bug with the way heat dissipates if your structures are touching mountain walls. Can provide screenshots or game save files if people also disbelieve me...

Thank you, JJcodon! That's very useful information. And awww, nobody disbelieves you! We had been asking for screenshots from the vacant Nuscler not because we thought he was lying, but because we wanted to know more! For instance, if he had the same problem as you (mountain tiles) we may have been able to get him an answer faster! No YOU, you were wonderful and found your own fix, then blessed us by sharing it; now, if we ever encounter similar problems, we can think of you and say, "Hm, are there mountain tiles in my freezer wall?" 'Cause that's a very useful, specific thing to look for.

You've helped a lot of people here today, JJCodon. Thank you!

I see where you are coming from with the industrial base arguement, but when a colonist can bash together a solar panel, geothermal generator, a planet to space radio or literally all the parts needed to make a spaceship with nothing more then whatever that flashing tool is, I don't see why they couldn't make what ever their times equivalent of a AK-47 is (assuming it's the Charge Rifle).

A good point; I hadn't even considered that. Given that a colony can manufacture their own charge rifles, it would seem to support the notion of them being more common. This is, of course, assuming that other rimworlds have similar settlers and similar tech levels to the ones we play, but I feel confident in that assumption. So, in  a way, charge rifles being that common makes sense; if your faction has researched machining, pulse rifles, and component assembly, there isn't much reason why you wouldn't crank out charge rifles. (Well, aside from potentially losing money on it; the information I have on firearm profitability is dated [A13] but that's what I have to go on.) This could account for how common they are.

However, I worry that I may have sidetracked Boston and Mikhail. The very real issue of game balance, as Nick points out, remains. When you get one to three charge rifles per pirate raid, they no longer seem rare, and as others such as Shurp have pointed out, they present a dominant strategy; arming colonists with snipers, charge rifles, and miniguns (as well as a few grenadiers) seems to work better than any combination I've found which uses the many guns in the game, such as shotguns, PDWs, machine pistols, and so on.

Unfortunately, I'm not quite sure how to solve that; perhaps for the one-hand weapons (pistol, machine pistol, etc.) a very short aim time is in order, making them close-quarters surprise weapons. (The idea being a pistol is a lot easier to maneuver and bring to bear than a longarm.) However, with the way combat currently works, a one-shot incapacitation seems unlikely, rendering that advantage minimal. I do feel that somehow specializing the guns for roles would be useful, I'm just not sure how one would go about that. Though, once I looked at the weapon stats, it seems that's already in place.

Really, the only thing that comes to mind is perhaps increasing the cooldown of the charge rifle from 40 ticks (as the postiol) to 80 (as the LMG or HSMG). I say this because, on paper, the guns DO look balanced; the HSMG for instance has only slightly less damage (10 vs 13) than the pulse rifle, comparable accuracy, slightly reduced range but a larger burst. If the above suggested were introduced, they'd also have similar warm-up and cooldown speeds.

I'll also say that having the assault rifle have half the damage of the survival rifle seems a little odd, assuming they're of similar calibers. Bringing AR damage to 18 would be overkill, mind, given the AR's burst. I'm not sure. Maybe a general damage buff for non-CR weapons is in order?

Tech level should determine the armament of attackers. Seeing how common drop pods are it makes sense that the people in them commonly have charge rifles. But you're right that the best weapon in the game shouldn't be so common. There should be rare weapons BETTER than the CR!

Huh, I really like that point of view. This goes double since, at least the way I play, my colony inevitably ends up making charge rifles, which would seem to imply that they're fairly common. Your idea of having weapons BETTER than charge rifles would provide much rarer ultra-weapons. Good idea, Shurp!

Well..... given that its the year 3000 or so, Lee Enfields, Uzi's and M16's should be as rare as 1000 year old guns today, and Charged Rifles (assuming they are the 'current' tech in game) should be as plentiful as AK-47 (variants) are today..

Hmm... I can see your point. I guess it depends on the rate of human expansion; often the limiting factor for the mass production of goods isn't technological know-how, but rather industrial base. If humans are expanding slowly relative to their industrial base, you're completely right; we should see high-tech EVERYTHING! If, however, humanity is expanding about as fast as they can build ships, then one would expect significantly less complicated devices to be the norm.

For instance, today we have the technical know-how to build flying cars, but we lack the industrial base to make it economically viable. A more relevant example is self-aiming rifles, which exist and are therefore possible, but again due to the lack of an industrial base to provide inexpensive components, doesn't exist on any wide scale.

So I guess the question I'm left with is one about Rimworld lore: how fast are people expanding? Are Urbworlds the norm, and Rimworlds just for the crazy pilgrims and unfortunate shipwrecks? Or do rim worlds outnumber developed ones ten to one, making the frontier the norm, and civilization only rare patches?

Hmm... I wonder if Tynan will weigh in on this. :p Nah, prolly more fun to let us debate and see what fan theories we come up with. ^ ^

No worries at all! For future reference, when you're in the reply page where you type your response, below (at least on my machine) you can see a summary of posts below with little "Insert Quote" buttons in the top right. I only say this because it took me ages to figure it out for myself. >.>

On the topic of ill people, do you recall what the illness was? There are a few ways to deal with health issues. Wounds are fairly straightforward, diseases take a bit more work. In either case, some things that help get a better outcome are: 1) Medicine. Glitterworld is best, standard medicine is good, herbal is shoddy, none is worst. 2) Medical beds. They can substantially increase how fast a colonist will recover from an illness. Medical monitors are bonus. However, both these take research, so a normal bed designated for medical use will do to start. 3) Doctor's skill. This is mostly in the quality of wound treatment and surgeries.

From what you said, the colonists went to bed and died, it sounds like no pawn treated them. Is it possible one of the wounded was your doctor? Pawns cannot, at present, self-treat, so if all your pawns with "Doctor" enabled in the work menu are disabled (wounded, resting, etc.) then none will automatically treat the others. It may be necessary to temporarily appoint a non-skilled pawn as doctor to ensure that the others get treatment; even something as little as a few cuts from a hunting expedition can be lethal if left untreated long enough.

On the topic of joy, there are several items you can build, some of which are very low-cost. The simplest is a horseshoes pin; it takes 15 resources (such as wood, stone bricks, steel, etc.) and provides a nice place for colonists to have fun. Chess and billiards tables are two more which are unlocked by default, though they take a bit more resources and/or work. When you can afford them, buying TVs, telescopes and the like from traders also gives quite a bit of joy. Drugs, including beer, are also good sources of joy, though may take lengthy production chains (in the case of beer), have addictive properties (in the case of non-booze), or both.

I hope this has been helpful. And if you have any more questions, feel free to ask.

--A