Questin about hitting chances

Started by Dr. Z, January 29, 2014, 05:05:49 AM

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Dr. Z

During a fight, I selected one of my guys and pointed at a raider, here is what it said:

Shot by Dweeb:           4%
  Range/skill               14%
  Range/equipment     90%
  Darkness                 60%
  Cover                      57%
    Rock debris stops   32%
    Rock debris stops   16%

How do you get to a hitting chance of 4% with this basic values?
Prasie the Squirrel!

nnescio

#1
Quote from: Dr. Z on January 29, 2014, 05:05:49 AM
During a fight, I selected one of my guys and pointed at a raider, here is what it said:

Shot by Dweeb:           4%
  Range/skill               14%
  Range/equipment     90%
  Darkness                 60%
  Cover                      57%
    Rock debris stops   32%
    Rock debris stops   16%

How do you get to a hitting chance of 4% with this basic values?

14% x 90% x 60% x 57% = 4(.3092)%

(4.3092% is rounded down to 4% for display purposes.)

Remember that 14% means 0.14. The rest is just simple multiplication.

The "cover" value indicates your hit chance through cover, ignoring all other factors. Rock debris provide two chances to miss, at 32% and 16%. The chance to hit is thus (1-0.32) x (1-0.16) = 57(.12)%, which is already calculated and displayed as 57%.

Edit: Basically, to make sense of the calculation:

Your colonist has a 14% chance to hit the raider at the distance between the two.

Hit chance = 14%

Assuming he's 'good enough' to hit, there's only a 90% chance that he will hit due to the range penalties on his equipment.

14% x 90% = 12.6%

(Note: 0.14 x 0.9 = 0.126)

Even if passes this test, darkness makes him miss 40% of the time, so he would only have a 60% chance to hit after that.

12.6% x 60% = 7.56%

Finally, assuming he makes it it this far, he still has only a 57% chance of hitting the raider instead of the rock cover.

7.56% x 57% = 4.3092% ≈ 4%

Does this make sense now?




Dr. Z

Ok thank you, I just calculated the average, which was about 40-50%, but if you multiply it, it makes sense  :)
Prasie the Squirrel!