Alpha 15 Economics Study

[brcruchairman]

So will time spent or opportunity be factors in the cost?  There are hard and soft costs for everything.  EVERYTHING.

Precisely! Obviously making art would be difficult on a flat desert with no relevant resources, ditto crops. The details of the colony are highly significant. This is part of why I'm trying to steer clear of "Just do X" advice. Once I have the numbers, then not only will high-profit items be obvious and empirically supported, but we can go on to analyze the effects of soft costs on them.

Soft cost in Rimworld are what? The food, defense, recreation facilities or am I understanding that soft/hard cost stuff wrong?

@brcruchairman
As far as I understand it the market price shown ingame -50% (as per trade value mod) +- some percent depending on trader type and a little random? modificator, what would be really interesting is how big the range of the random mod and the trader type mod is.

We can even find out if a trader is supposed to offer an item cheap or not, it's in the defs too.

But I see your point taking this as an exercise, just keep that points in mind when you try to find out what modifiers are at work.

I think you've got the idea for soft costs. Mind, some of those are fixed, but the variable ones (e.g., defending a herd of animals or the like) would be especially relevant. Though, come to think of it, the fixed costs only become irrelevant as the product quantity goes to infinity, so those will be very good to look at, too. (I mean, the cost of all those turrets and their power infrastructure would NOT be small for a huge crop plot.)

Your point is also well-taken; many people will probably roll their eyes and think, "Just check the defs." Once I've got a pool of data, I'd very much like to compare the empirical values with what the formulae would suggest. Would you be willing to help me with this, perhaps?

To contribute one just has to write the transactions down in your online document ?

Exactly! That's all it takes, and every little bit counts. I've tried to streamline the process to allow easier processing of larger orders. (E.g., you can copy and paste if it's many of the same type.) If you have any suggestions on how to improve it, I'd love to hear!

I read through the,"steel burns" topic, (and posted) so I know we can trust the honorable brcruchairman

Looking forward to this! I hope nonmonumentusbrain joins the fun!:-)

Awww, you're making me blush. You rock, Piglet. And hehe, me too; that dude is sharp as a tack.

As I have said before in other threads, dusters are the way to go. They have by far the highest material-to-silver output.

You may very well be right. But, if this goes through, you'll have the evidence to PROVE you're right! (Or rather, formally speaking, strong evidence supporting your argument.) I'm also, as I mentioned in a previous post, highly interested in the exact values one can expect from trade goods, dusters included. That way I can normalize for things like labor and time to make. Frankly, though, I imagine that'll only help dusters; they're relatively quick to produce compared to things like sculptures or melee weapons.

[SpaceDorf]

I am still waiting for my A14 Colony to crumble before I fully dive into A15.
I actually only noticed today that it came out
So I can't tell about the Trader Changes, but the bigges Soft-Cost in A14 was that I
had a lots of Tradegoods, but never the right Trader to get rid of them.

My Colony never sold a single Duster so far ..

[ReZpawner]

I already proved the duster theory last time. If you want to give it a go, just check all the recipes. Each recipe has a set amount of materials required to create whatever you're trying to create. Then find the sell-price of the item (this is listed on the item if you click the i). Then do the maths.

As a bonus for you new people: If you find a trader who sells silver statues (exotic traders do): Large and Grand statues made from silver, of low quality (awful up to normal) will cost less than the materials are worth. This is despite you only getting 75% of the materials back. Get in on it now, before Tynan removes it, since it's a bit of an exploit).

[SpaceDorf]

I already proved the duster theory last time. If you want to give it a go, just check all the recipes. Each recipe has a set amount of materials required to create whatever you're trying to create. Then find the sell-price of the item (this is listed on the item if you click the i). Then do the maths.

As a bonus for you new people: If you find a trader who sells silver statues (exotic traders do): Large and Grand statues made from silver, of low quality (awful up to normal) will cost less than the materials are worth. This is despite you only getting 75% of the materials back. Get in on it now, before Tynan removes it, since it's a bit of an exploit).

Is this new in A15 ? .. last time I checked I only got 25% return ..
also this should hold true then for every other small matierial

And nobody said you where wrong about dusters, what this project wants to find out is
if there is anything else beside Dusters, or even something better.
Admit it, that would be neat ?

[brcruchairman]

I already proved the duster theory last time. If you want to give it a go, just check all the recipes. Each recipe has a set amount of materials required to create whatever you're trying to create. Then find the sell-price of the item (this is listed on the item if you click the i). Then do the maths.

You may note that the value listed in the in-game information panel is NOT what they actually sell for. I also don't recall seeing your proof; did you account for materials cost? What was the final profit margin you found? It'd be nice to compare results.

And nobody said you where wrong about dusters, what this project wants to find out is
if there is anything else beside Dusters, or even something better.
Admit it, that would be neat ?

Just so; there may be other objects of comparable worth, particularly ones that use different resources. Perhaps there are crops which grow on temperate maps which, per colonist day, are worth more than dusters. Perhaps not. Either way, we've got to find exact values to be able to compare apples to oranges.

[SpaceDorf]

The BigMac Index for Rimworld

[Solomancer]

I think this is a great idea and would like to contribute, if you're still looking for extra data or help.

I hadn't ever played Dwarf Fortress or this type of game until I came across RimWorld recently, and I was instantly hooked.  I've been perusing the forums recently and noticed your economics study and thought it was brilliant.

I don't play as much as I'd like (work, family, life keeping me busy lately), but when I do, I would be happy to keep track and add any data I have to the spreadsheet.   Feel free to PM me or reply if you have questions, requests, or instructions for a new contributor. 

Thanks for organizing the study.  Looking forward to seeing what the data analysis shows.

Cheers!

[ReZpawner]

I already proved the duster theory last time. If you want to give it a go, just check all the recipes. Each recipe has a set amount of materials required to create whatever you're trying to create. Then find the sell-price of the item (this is listed on the item if you click the i). Then do the maths.

You may note that the value listed in the in-game information panel is NOT what they actually sell for. I also don't recall seeing your proof; did you account for materials cost? What was the final profit margin you found? It'd be nice to compare results.

And nobody said you where wrong about dusters, what this project wants to find out is
if there is anything else beside Dusters, or even something better.
Admit it, that would be neat ?

Just so; there may be other objects of comparable worth, particularly ones that use different resources. Perhaps there are crops which grow on temperate maps which, per colonist day, are worth more than dusters. Perhaps not. Either way, we've got to find exact values to be able to compare apples to oranges.

I know all this, again: Do the maths yourself, or search the forums.

Spacedorf: In the other cases, you'll have to factor in the trade-price of the materials. Gold will not sell for a static price, for instance. Nor will Jade. Silver, however, will always be worth the same. That's why it's a bit of an exploit.
With all other materials, you'll have to consider that they will sell for 50-ish percent of what they are worth.

[brcruchairman]

I know all this, again: Do the maths yourself, or search the forums.

I get the feeling you're treating this as a colloquial discussion rather than scientific discourse. In scientific discourse, as I'm sure you're aware, the burden of proof lies on the claimant. In colloquial discourse, there aren't really any conventions. I know that, personally, I'm aiming for scientific discourse, so I think we've been operating cross-wise.

I really would like to see your results. However, forum searches tend to return a really broad spread of topics, and as I've got my own answer to the question, honestly I don't feel particularly compelled to search for another. If you would like to assist me by sharing your results, I'd really appreciate a link. If you would rather not, then I must apologize; I can only assume I've offended you somehow. If I did, I assure you it wasn't my intention. Would you be willing to tell me what I did wrong? I try to be compassionate to everyone, but sometimes I really suck at it. :/ So if I fucked up and was an asshat to you, I'd like to know how so I can avoid it in the future.

In any event, I'd like to thank you for your attention and contributions thus far; it'd be quite boring and sad if it were just me talking to myself! :p I rather doubt anyone would want to read that. >.>

Sincerely,
--Andrew

-----EDIT-----
I've also been made aware that I have zero coverage of slave values. As they're a much more complicated transaction, it'd require dramatically expanded input fields. However, it would provide us for a nice baseline of colonist "worth", which could be applied in terms of labor costs, etc. Is anyone else interested in this? If so, I may have to add a new sheet to that workbook to allow the entering of slaves (buying or selling).

Also, thank you everyone for the interest and assistance! I've had quite a few of my errors pointed out, and many transactions listed, all thanks to this awesome community. You guys rock.

[SpaceDorf]

Spacedorf: In the other cases, you'll have to factor in the trade-price of the materials. Gold will not sell for a static price, for instance. Nor will Jade. Silver, however, will always be worth the same. That's why it's a bit of an exploit.
With all other materials, you'll have to consider that they will sell for 50-ish percent of what they are worth.

It is true, that the sellprices may be not worth reclaiming in this case. But I calculate with the buying price instead to consider if its cheaper to buy and reclaim than buying the material.

[Aatxe360]

I'll help compile some data.  Might find something interesting.

[carbon]

I'm afraid I'm feeling too lazy to keep detailed notes, but one safe and effective way to make silver so far in 15c is to call exotic outlander traders and unload large amounts of simple meals on them.

Using a trader with ~6% price improvement, a simple meal sells for about 10.25 silver consistently. That's just over 1 silver per vegetable / meat. Once you have a decent sized walk-in freezer and a comms station, you can cook up as much money as you want.

[brcruchairman]

I'll help compile some data.  Might find something interesting.

Thank you! Every person helps make this study able to draw more and better conclusions. With something that has as broad of a scope as this, it's only with the help of this awesome community that we'll be able to get enough data to get a solid conclusion.

I'm afraid I'm feeling too lazy to keep detailed notes, but one safe and effective way to make silver so far in 15c is to call exotic outlander traders and unload large amounts of simple meals on them.

Using a trader with ~6% price improvement, a simple meal sells for about 10.25 silver consistently. That's just over 1 silver per vegetable / meat. Once you have a decent sized walk-in freezer and a comms station, you can cook up as much money as you want.

This is actually an excellent illustration of why I'm so excited about this project; a simple meal takes 10 raw ingredients. By your figures (1 silver per raw ingredient to buy, 10.25 silver per meal to sell) we're actually looking at a profit of only 0.25 silver per meal. That's an ~2.5% profit margin. Of course, meals can be produced in great quantities, and often the food is produced locally. One data point, for instance, shows a rice revenue of only 0.44 silver per unit. So cooking that rice into a meal as opposed to selling it outright adds 10.25-4.40=5.85 silver of value!

This is the kind of quantified information that can't be gained by simplistic advice such as, "Sell human leather. It makes a lot of money." While the statement may be true, it's not as revealing as the data you just presented. Now, for instance, we have fairly compelling evidence that selling raw crops is less profitable than processing that into meals first, THEN selling. And we also have the opportunity to look at fine meals; quantitatively, what would be better, selling simple meals from domestic crops, or fine meals from domestic crops and imported meat? Those are calculations which I'm hoping to make in subsequent studies based off this data.

Also, Carbon, I note that you've reminded me of a category I've completely forgotten; meat! I'm unsure what animals have different valued meats; leather, I've found a source for, has three tiers: human, Rhino, and all others in order. Does meat follow suit? I don't know! And now you've helped me refine my process even further! Thank you, Carbon! Even your interest, without contributing data, has improved this project.

Honestly, I'm liking this community more and more as time goes by. Even the surly members are  polite and seem to decide to not be mean when someone like me shows vulnerability. And the rest of the community, hoo boy! Honestly, if I could reach through the internet and give you all a hug, I would. 'Cause y'all freaking ROCK.

--A

[Aatxe360]

Thrumbofur has it's own price point.  I have no idea what rhinohide is at.

Also, what about the buying and selling of animals and their byproducts?  I have a game going where I'm intentionally breeding huskies to sell off when that rare merchant comes buying and selling other animals.  Animals do have other costs involved.

[brcruchairman]

Howdy y'all! An update on the project:

I've gotten some good data so far, thanks chiefly to a few AMAZINGLY dedicated community members; thank you all so much! In addition to that, I've been expanding the permissible data to include the majority of all items, as well as a whole special sheet for slave trading. That particular part I don't expect to bear fruit for some time, but it never hurts to start early. Finally, I've done some basic preliminary analysis on the data I have (~250 data points so far) to get some tentative numbers. Details below.

All data and analysis remain publicly available on the spreadsheet found here.


Effect of Social Skill on Revenue

The first analysis I performed was on the effect of social skill on the revenue gained by selling items. Due to the relatively small data set, the only data sets with enough data to start an analysis on were components and herbal medicine. The herbal medicine results appeared paradoxical, with price decreasing with social skill, which has been attributed to sampling error. The components data set included a clear outlier, which was omitted.

For components, it appears that each point of social skill adds 13 cents to the revenue. (Price = 0.136*Social + 6.306, r²=0.812) Adjusting for the average price, this seems to add a full 1.86% to the revenue for each point of social! However, this is a highly preliminary result; the r² value remains too low for comfort, and the omission of the outlier both render this result far from reliable. However, this experimental value is fairly close to the expected value of 0.5% price increase per social point. As more data is accumulated, a better analysis will be made easier. However, this does at least confirm that the actual behavior of social is similar (read: within an order of magnitude) to the behavior expected from the game's code.


Item Health Analysis
This analysis presents a much larger and less exclusive dataset, and as such represents a more firm conclusion, though this should still be taken as far from definitive. The categories with adequate data included Pila, Cloth (commodity), Leather (All Others) [Commodity], Parka (Cloth), and T-Shirt (Cloth). Linear r² values range from 0.776 at the low end to 0.936 to the high end. Median value is 0.894. It appears from the data that an exponential model fits better; r² values ranged from 0.725 with T-Shirts to 0.988 to Cloth. Median value was 0.893.

Using the median r² value as a guide, it appears that good value drops off sharply with initial damage, and approaches 28 cents as health goes to zero. This will be particularly useful when the time comes to perform profit analysis, normalizing all goods for wear and tear as well as quality.



And, with that, it's past midnight on a worknight, so it's time for me to hit the hay. Tomorrow I intend to perform a quality analysis to verify what we'd expect from the code. Once that's done, I can normalize prices for both quality and item health, which will significantly refine my data pool and allow me to do some preliminary analysis regarding profitable items.

I hope this is an interesting to some of you out there as it is to me. I know that personally, I am incredibly grateful for the community here, and all their help in giving me data to manipulate, not to mention catching some of my sillier errors and omissions! And, as always, if anyone sees a mistake or oversight, please let me know and I'll do what I can to correct it.